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Sixth Simons Public Lecture

Prof. Dr. Rupert Klein (Free University of Berlin) will deliver the sixth in the international series of MPE2013 Simons Public Lectures on May 23, 2013, at the Free University of Berlin. The title is CliMathematics: Models, data, structures.

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Recent Posts

Using Mathematics to Understand, Detect, and Predict Biological Events in Our Water Systems

May 20th, 2013

In coastal ocean, estuary, and lake systems, there is much interest in understanding, detecting, and predicting biological events. [...]

Neglected Tropical Diseases — and how mathematics can help

May 18th, 2013

You might have heard of a group of diseases called the "Neglected Tropical Diseases". This isn't just a generic title for all the forgotten diseases in the world; it's a specific designation on behalf of the World Health Organization for 13 particular diseases that qualify for neglected status. Collectively, these diseases infect about one sixth of the world's population. [...]

MPE2013 Newsletter

Chaos in the Solar System

The inner planets (Mercury, Venus, the Earth and Mars) have chaotic motions. Numerical evidence was given by Jacques Laskar in 1994. Since numerical errors grow exponentially because of the sensitivity to initial conditions, it was impossible to keep control on the position of the planets over long periods of times (hundreds of millions of years), and Laskar derived and simulated an averaged system of equations. At the time, the simulations showed that the orbit of Mercury could cross that of Venus for some period of time. Laskar could explain this chaotic behaviour by exhibiting resonances in some periodic motions of the orbits of the inner planets. Another way to study chaotic systems is to make numerous simulations in parallel with close initial conditions, and deriving probabilities of future behaviours. The shadowing lemma guarantees that a simulated trajectory resembles a real trajectory for a close initial condition. In 2009, Laskar announced in Nature the results of an ambitious program of 2000 parallel simulations of the Solar system over periods of the order of 5 billions of years. The new model of the Solar system was much more sophisticated, and included some relativistic effects. The simulations showed a 1% chance that Mercury could be destabilized and encounter a collision with the Sun or Venus. A much smaller number of simulations showed that all the inner planets could be destabilized, with a potential collision between the Earth and, either Venus, or Mars, in around 3.3 billion years.

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